The U.S. trucking industry entered Q1 2026 showing early signs of stabilization, but not a full recovery. Freight volumes, as reflected in the Freight TSI, have ticked up slightly compared to late 2025, though activity remains below peak levels seen in prior years.
After a prolonged period of softness, the market appears to be finding a floor, with seasonal demand and incremental improvements in industrial activity helping to support freight movement. However, this recovery remains fragile and uneven across regions and freight types.
In labor markets, transportation unemployment edged slightly higher compared to the end of 2025, signaling a more cautious hiring environment. Total trucking employment has remained relatively flat, reinforcing the idea that carriers are still managing capacity conservatively.
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